Robust evidence or rigged data?

ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED AUG 5, 2014

 

popn predictions and reality 11-12Section 2 (pages 14-25) of Going west: housing, migration and population growth in Cornwall discovers that official statistics have been grossly exaggerating population and household growth in Cornwall. Here’s an extract …

“As we have seen, ONS and DCLG projections are far from being ‘robust’ assessments of ‘objective’ need. In fact, they are subject to a substantial margin of error. In practice, the words ‘robust’ and ‘objective’ are just rhetorical devices to justify the methodology, not a description grounded in evidence. Comparison with census data shows that projections invariably over-estimated Cornwall’s population and household growth in the past ten years. The consistency of this means that it’s most likely to be the result of structural shortcomings. The puzzle is why Cornwall’s planners persist in arguing that such flawed datasets provide the only ‘defensible’ evidence. The Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research advises local planning authorities to plan on the basis of official projections ‘unless there is strong local evidence to the contrary’. In Cornwall there is strong local evidence to the contrary but it’s ignored.”

ONS forecasts 2000s

household forecasts

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